### Academic Report: Mathematical Time-Space Theory of Uncertainty

*Date:2018-06-13*_showDynClicks("wbnews", 1343608363, 2021)

*Promulgator:*Click:Topic: Mathematical Time-Space Theory of Uncertainty

Time: At 16:00, June 15 (Friday), 2018

Venue: Meeting Room 404, Teaching Building of School of Science, West Campus

Lecturer: Liu Baoding (School of Mathematics, Tsinghua University)

Lecturer profile:

Liu Baoding received his B.A. degree from Nankai University in 1986, M.A. degree from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1989, and PhD degree in 1993. He received his Associate Professor title at Tsinghua University in 1996 and was promoted to professor in 1998. His main academic contribution is to create the “uncertainty theory” of the axiomatic branch of mathematics that studies the phenomenon of uncertainty. This theory also derives areas such as uncertain planning, uncertain logic, uncertain analysis, uncertain differential equations, and uncertain statistics. His masterpiece is "Uncertainty Theory" published by Springer. His monograph has been translated into Russian and Japanese.

Lecture introduction:

The premise of the application of probability theory is that the probability distribution we know must be sufficiently close to the actual frequency. Unfortunately, the problems we often have are the lack of observational data, which can neither calculate the frequency of events nor determine the probability distribution. In this case, we have to estimate the reliability of the event based on experts’ experience and knowledge. Because the value range people generally estimate is usually much wider than the actual ones, which makes the difference between confidence and frequency far. At this point, if we regard reliability as a subjective probability, the derived results are quite different from our expectations. In order to study this phenomenon, the theory of uncertainty came into being, not only developed into a branch of axiomatic mathematics, but also achieved a series of successful applications. This lecture focuses on "What is the theory of uncertainty" and "Why use the theory of uncertainty."

Reference: Liu B, Uncertainty Theory, http://orsc.edu.cn/liu/ut.pdf.

All are welcome!

(Translated by Liu Shuai)